Penrose Diagram for a Transient Black Hole

A Penrose diagram is constructed for a spatially coherent black hole that smoothly begins an accretion, then excretes symmetrically as measured by a distant observer, with the initial and final states described by a metric of Minkowski form. Coordinate curves on the diagram are computationally derived. Causal relationships between space-time regions are briefly discussed. The life cycle of the black hole demonstrably leaves asymptotic observers in an unaltered Minkowski space-time of uniform conformal scale.Comment: 14 pages, 9 figures, spelling correction

Longitudinal association of physical activity during pregnancy with maternal and infant outcomes: Findings from the Australian longitudinal study of women’s health

Background: Physical activity has known benefits during pregnancy; however, the optimum volume of physical activity through the different stages of pregnancy is not well known. Objectives: The aims of this study were to investigate the associations of physical activity volume in pregnant women in each trimester of pregnancy with maternal and infant outcomes. Design: The study involved 1657 pregnant women from the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women’s Health, who completed surveys from 2006 to 2012 (aged 28–39 years). Methods: Women reported being in either the first, second or third trimester of pregnancy. Women were grouped into four groups according to their self-reported physical activity during pregnancy: (1) Nil (0–<33.3 MET.min/week), (2) Low (33.3–<500 MET.min/week), (3) Moderate (500–<1000 MET.min/week) and (4) High (⩾1000 MET.min/week). Women who reported their physical activity during pregnancy completed a survey within three years after the birth, relating to outcomes associated with pregnancy and childbirth (gestational diabetes, hypertension, and antenatal depression and anxiety) and infant outcomes (birthweight and prematurity). Results: There was no association of physical activity in any trimester with infant birthweight, prematurity, gestational diabetes, hypertension or antenatal depression. Antenatal anxiety was less prevalent in women who reported low (1.7%) or moderate (1.1%) physical activity than in those who reported no activity (4.7%; p = 0.01). Conclusion: Different amounts of physical activity during pregnancy were not associated with the measured adverse health outcomes. However, low and moderate amounts of physical activity were associated with reduced incidence of antenatal anxiety

Mechanical thrombectomy in patients with acute ischemic stroke: A cost-effectiveness and value of implementation analysis

BACKGROUND Recent clinical trials have demonstrated the efficacy of mechanical thrombectomy in acute ischemic stroke. AIMS To determine the cost-effectiveness, value of future research, and value of implementation of mechanical thrombectomy. METHODS Using UK clinical and cost data from the Pragmatic Ischemic Stroke Thrombectomy Evaluation (PISTE) trial, we estimated the cost-effectiveness of mechanical thrombectomy over time horizons of 90-days and lifetime, based on a decision-analytic model, using all existing evidence. We performed a meta-analysis of seven clinical trials to estimate treatment effects. We used sensitivity analysis to address uncertainty. Value of implementation analysis was used to estimate the potential value of additional implementation activities to support routine delivery of mechanical thrombectomy. RESULTS Over the trial period (90 days), compared with best medical care alone, mechanical thrombectomy incurred an incremental cost of £5207 and 0.025 gain in QALY (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) £205,279), which would not be considered cost-effective. However, mechanical thrombectomy was shown to be cost-effective over a lifetime horizon, with an ICER of £3466 per QALY gained. The expected value of perfect information per patient eligible for mechanical thrombectomy in the UK is estimated at £3178. The expected value of full implementation of mechanical thrombectomy is estimated at £1.3 billion over five years. CONCLUSION Mechanical thrombectomy was cost-effective compared with best medical care alone over a patient’s lifetime. On the assumption of 30% implementation being achieved throughout the UK healthcare system, we estimate that the population health benefits obtained from this treatment are greater than the cost of implementation

Using k-NN to analyse images of diverse germination phenotypes and detect single seed germination in Miscanthus sinensis

Background: Miscanthus is a leading second generation bio-energy crop. It is mostly rhizome propagated; however, the increasing use of seed is resulting in a greater need to investigate germination. Miscanthus seed are small, germination is often poor and carried out without sterilisation; therefore, automated methods applied to germination detection must be able to cope with, for example, thresholding of small objects, low germination frequency and the presence or absence of mould. Results: Machine learning using k-NN improved the scoring of different phenotypes encountered in Miscanthus seed. The k-NN-based algorithm was effective in scoring the germination of seed images when compared with human scores of the same images. The trueness of the k-NN result was 0.69-0.7, as measured using the area under a ROC curve. When the k-NN classifier was tested on an optimised image subset of seed an area under the ROC curve of 0.89 was achieved. The method compared favourably to an established technique. Conclusions: With non-ideal seed images that included mould and broken seed the k-NN classifier was less consistent with human assessments. The most accurate assessment of germination with which to train classifiers is difficult to determine but the k-NN classifier provided an impartial consistent measurement of this important trait. It was more reproducible than the existing human scoring methods and was demonstrated to give a high degree of trueness to the human score

Projections of global and UK bioenergy potential from Miscanthus × giganteus - Feedstock yield, carbon cycling and electricity generation in the 21st century

This is the final version. Available on open access from Wiley via the DOI in this recordIn this article, we modify bioenergy model MiscanFor investigating global and UK potentials for Miscanthus × giganteus as a bioenergy resource for carbon capture in the 21st century under the RCP 2.6 climate scenario using SSP2 land use projections. UK bioenergy land projections begin in the 2040s, 60 year average is 0.47 Mega ha rising to 1.9 Mega ha (2090s). Our projections estimate UK energy generation of 0.09 EJ/year (60 year average) and 0.37 EJ/year (2090s), under stable miscanthus yields of 12 t ha−1 year−1. We estimate aggregated UK soil carbon (C) increases of 0.09 Mt C/year (60 year average) and 0.14 Mt C/year (2090s) with C capture plus sequestration rate of 2.8 Mt C/year (60 year average) and 10.49 Mt C/year (2090s). Global bioenergy land use begins in 2010, 90 year average is 0.13 Gha rising to 0.19 Gha by the 2090s, miscanthus projections give a 90 year average energy generation of 16 EJ/year, rising to 26.7 EJ/year by the 2090s. The largest national capabilities for yield, energy and C increase are projected to be Brazil and China. Ninety year average global miscanthus yield of 1 Gt/year will be 1.7 Gt/year by the 2090s. Global soil C sequestration increases less with time, from a century average of 73.6 Mt C/year to 42.9 Mt C/year by the 2090s with C capture plus sequestration rate of 0.54 Gt C/year (60 year average) and 0.81 Gt C/year (2090s). M. giganteus could provide just over 5% of the bioenergy requirement by the 2090s to satisfy the RCP 2.6 SSP2 climate scenario. The choice of global land use data introduces a potential source of error. In reality, multiple bioenergy sources will be used, best suited to local conditions, but results highlight global requirements for development in bioenergy crops, infrastructure and support.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC

Predictors of Stroke, Myocardial Infarction or Death within 30 Days of Carotid Artery Stenting: Results from the International Carotid Stenting Study.

OBJECTIVES: Stroke, myocardial infarction (MI), and death are complications of carotid artery stenting (CAS). The effect of baseline patient demographic factors, processes of care, and technical factors during CAS on the risk of stroke, MI, or death within 30 days of CAS in the International Carotid Stenting Study (ICSS) were investigated. METHODS: In ICSS, suitable patients with recently symptomatic carotid stenosis > 50% were randomly allocated to CAS or endarterectomy. Factors influencing the risk of stroke, MI, or death within 30 days of CAS were examined in a regression model for the 828 patients randomized to CAS in whom the procedure was initiated. RESULTS: Of the patients, 7.4% suffered stroke, MI, or death within 30 days of CAS. Independent predictors of risk were age (risk ratio [RR] 1.17 per 5 years of age, 95% CI 1.01-1.37), a right-sided procedure (RR 0.54, 95% CI 0.32-0.91), aspirin and clopidogrel in combination prior to CAS (compared with any other antiplatelet regimen, RR 0.59, 95% CI 0.36-0.98), smoking status, and the severity of index event. In patients in whom a stent was deployed, use of an open-cell stent conferred higher risk than use of a closed-cell stent (RR 1.92, 95% CI 1.11-3.33). Cerebral protection device (CPD) use did not modify the risk. CONCLUSIONS: Selection of patients for CAS should take into account symptoms, age, and side of the procedure. The results favour the use of closed-cell stents. CPDs in ICSS did not protect against stroke

Environment and harvest time affects the combustion qualities of Miscanthus genotypes

Miscanthus spp. are high-yielding perennial C4 grasses, native to Asia, that are being investigated in Europe as potential biofuels. Production of economically viable solid biofuel must combine high biomass yields with good combustion qualities. Good biomass combustion quality depends on minimizing moisture, ash, K, chloride, N, and S. To this end, field trials at five sites in Europe from Sweden to Portugal were planted with 15 different genotypes including M. x giganteus, M. sacchariflorus, M. sinensis, and newly bred M. sinensis hybrids. Yield and combustion quality at an autumn and a late winter/ early spring harvest were determined in the third year after planting when the stands had reached maturity. As expected, delaying the harvest by three to four months improved the combustion quality of all genotypes by reducing ash (from 40 to 25 g kg-1 dry matter), K (from 9 to 4 g kg-1 dry matter), chloride (from 4 to 1 g kg-1 dry matter), N (from 5 to 4 g kg-1 dry matter), and moisture (from 564 to 291 g kg-1 fresh matter). However, the delayed harvest also decreased mean biomass yields from 17 to 14 t ha-1. There is a strong interaction among yield, quality, and site growing conditions. Results show that in northern regions of Europe, M. sinensis hybrids can be recommended for high yields (yielding up to 25 t ha-1), but M. sinensis (nonhybrid) genotypes have higher combustion qualities. In mid- and south Europe, M. giganteus (yielding up to 38 t ha-1) or specific high-yielding M. sinensis hybrids (yielding up to 41 t ha-1) are more suitable for biofuel production

Using a Taguchi DOE to investigate factors and interactions affecting germination in Miscanthus sinensis

The Miscanthus genus of perennial grasses is grown for bioenergy and biorenewable feedstocks. Most Miscanthus crop is M × giganteus which is rhizome propagated and therefore difficult to multiply at large scale. Seed-based propagation of new hybrids is being developed, but Miscanthus is difficult to establish from seed especially in the field. Miscanthus is often grown on marginal land adding to the challenge of successfully establishing the crop. Improved understanding of the limits and biology of germination in Miscanthus species is needed. Seed germination is affected by physical and chemical factors that impact germination differently depending on level of exposure. In this investigation of Miscanthus germination, four hormones plus water stress were investigated and the range over which these factors affect germination was determined. An efficient Taguchi experimental design was used to assess the five factors in combination with the effects of light and seed priming. This determined an example of a set of optimum conditions for Miscanthus germination and demonstrated how this could change based on fixing one condition. The experiment showed how environmental stress impacted germination and how treatments such as gibberellic acid could be used to mitigate stress

Allelopathic and intraspecific growth competition effects establishment of direct sown Miscanthus

High yielding perennial crops are being developed as a sustainable feedstock for renewable energy and bioproducts. Miscanthus is a leading biomass crop, but most plantations comprise a sterile hybrid Miscanthus × giganteus that is clonally propagated. To develop new varieties across large areas, rhizome cloning is inefficient, time consuming and expensive. Alternative approaches use seed, and in temperate regions, this has been successfully applied by raising seedlings as plug plants in glasshouses before transfer to the field. Direct sowing has yet to be proven commercially viable because poor germination has resulted in inconsistent stand establishment. Oversowing using seed clusters is a common approach to improve the establishment of crops and it was hypothesized that such an approach will improve uniformity of density in early Miscanthus stands and thereby improve yield. Sowing multiple seeds creates potential for new interactions, and we identified at least two inhibitory mechanisms related to seed numbers. Germinating seed produced allelopathic effects on nearby seed thereby inhibiting plant growth. The inhibitory effect of Miscanthus seed on germination percentages was related to seed number within clusters. An extract from germinating Miscanthus seed inhibited the germination of Miscanthus seed. The extract was analysed by HPLC, which identified a complex mixture including several known allelopathic compounds including proanthocyanidins and vanillic acid. There was also evidence of root competition in soil in a controlled environment experiment. When the experiment on competition was replicated at field scale, the establishment rates were much lower and there was evidence of shoot competition. We conclude that the numbers of seed required to ensure an acceptable level of establishment in the field may be economically impractical until other agronomic techniques are included either to reduce the inhibitory effects of higher seed numbers or to reduce oversowing rates